New paper - migratory birds and global change

A Great Knot with two Bar-tailed Godwits - two of the species studied in this paper. Image © Dean Ingwersen.

Led by the brilliant Simeon Lisovski from the Alfred Wegener Institute and Silke Bauer from the Swiss Ornithological Institute, we are delighted to have contributed in a small way to an excellent new paper published in PNAS today.

Migratory birds are particularly vulnerable to environmental change, since they require suitable habitat in regions critical to their long journeys. This paper builds computer models of bird migrations in environmental conditions representing the 1960s, 2010s, and 2060s. The birds were five species of shorebird along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, a region that has experienced significant habitat degradation and loss since the 1960s.

The results suggest that birds’ resilience to environmental change varies by species, with large species vulnerable to environmental change at their few major stopover sites. Resilience for such large species requires a significant shift in migration route or strategy. Small birds, however, are able to adapt their paths to utilize different habitats.

Comparing modeled results to empirical data shows that large birds’ migration routes stayed close to their original optimal routes until accelerated habitat deterioration necessitated adaptation. According to the authors, the results serve as a conservation tool to plan for birds’ future migration adaptation needs and suggest the extent of adaptation necessary for different bird species to sustain migrations.

Thanks to all the wonderful co-authors for a great collaboration on this paper. Read the paper here.